美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的緩慢發(fā)展，影響了整體研發(fā)的費(fèi)用，半導(dǎo)體制造設(shè)備領(lǐng)域預(yù)言將看到與去年增長(zhǎng)相比而下降的趨勢(shì)。 據(jù)行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)SEMI稱：隨著更多的fab建造工程被擱置或推置到年底或下一年，花費(fèi)在fab建造項(xiàng)目上的成本及fabs裝備將很有可能在今年出現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)下跌。 最近的SEMI fab數(shù)據(jù)資料報(bào)告顯示：今年花費(fèi)在fab設(shè)備上的費(fèi)用預(yù)計(jì)比去年9％的增長(zhǎng)要下降15％，在2007年10月的fab數(shù)據(jù)資料報(bào)告中就已經(jīng)有下降的趨勢(shì)。 鑄造設(shè)備的花費(fèi)預(yù)計(jì)下降差不多為10％，同時(shí)花費(fèi)在用于記憶和邏輯/MPU部分的設(shè)備預(yù)計(jì)分別下降15％和30％。 今年花費(fèi)在fab建造項(xiàng)目上的費(fèi)用與2007年的強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)相比，預(yù)計(jì)要下降9％。12個(gè)新fabs預(yù)計(jì)動(dòng)工，當(dāng)完全運(yùn)營(yíng)達(dá)到每月153萬(wàn)晶圓時(shí)（平均為200mm），也即全部的產(chǎn)量。2008年五個(gè)最大的fab建造項(xiàng)目花費(fèi)者分別是： Flash Alliance （Toshiba/Sandisk JV）, Samsung, Hynix, Rexchip （Elpida/Powerchip JV） 和Powerchip。 同時(shí)，今年半導(dǎo)體制造能力有望增長(zhǎng)約11％，記憶存儲(chǔ)將最大化保留fab全部容量，將從去年的38％增長(zhǎng)到41％。 記憶fabs計(jì)劃提高18％的容量，在logic/MPU之后其預(yù)期看到5％的生長(zhǎng)，鑄造廠預(yù)計(jì)增加大于8％的容量。 根據(jù)美國(guó)Battelle Memorial Institute的報(bào)告：美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)慢速增長(zhǎng)會(huì)影響今年用于研發(fā)上的費(fèi)用。在通貨膨脹前，美國(guó)用于研發(fā)的全部費(fèi)用預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)為3％，從3550億美元增長(zhǎng)為3670美元，但在通貨膨脹之后增長(zhǎng)率只能為1.3％。 報(bào)告的作者備注到，由于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)全面緩慢增長(zhǎng)其用于研發(fā)的費(fèi)用較去年會(huì)更加謹(jǐn)慎。從20世紀(jì)后期開始，在通貨膨脹后，美國(guó)用于研發(fā)的投資每年以1-2％的增長(zhǎng)率在增長(zhǎng)。一年前Battelle估計(jì)每年的花費(fèi)會(huì)增長(zhǎng)3％或是4％，但目前其還是持樂觀態(tài)度，預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)的三年年增長(zhǎng)率為2％。 [FONT=times] original text [/FONT] [font=times][Color=#708090]The slowing US economy is impacting overall R&D spending, with the semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector predicted to see a drop compared to last year‘s growth. As many fab construction projects are put on hold or pushed out to end-of-year or into next year, spending on fab construction projects and fabs equipping will likely see double digit declines this year, according to industry association SEMI. A recent analysis of SEMI’s fab database reports revealed that spending on fab equipment this year is expected to decline 15% compared to the 9% growth last year, reflecting a downward revision of the outlook reported in the October 2007 fab database report. Foundry equipment spending is expected to drop by almost 10%, while equipment spending for the memory and logic/MPU segments expected to fall by 15 and 30%, respectively. Spending on fab construction projects is expected to decline this year by 9%, compared to the strong growth in 2007, with 12 new volume fabs expected to start construction, representing a total capacity addition when fully operational of 1.53 million wafers per month （wpm） in 200 mm equivalents. The five biggest spenders on fab construction projects in 2008 are expected to be Flash Alliance （Toshiba/Sandisk JV）, Samsung, Hynix, Rexchip （Elpida/Powerchip JV） and Powerchip. At the same time, semiconductor manufacturing capacity is projected to grow by approximately 11% this year, with memory retaining the largest share of total fab capacity, and expected to increase to 41% from 38% last year. Memory fabs are projected to increase capacity by 18% year-over-year, followed by logic/MPU, which are expected to see 5% growth, while foundries are forecasted to add about 8% more capacity. On a macro level, the slowing US economy is expected to dampen spending on R&D this year, according a report from research firm Battelle Memorial Institute. Total spending on US R&D is projected to rise about 3% to $367 billion from $355 billion, before accounting for inflation, and after accounting for inflation, the growth rate would be about 1.3%, Battelle reported in news reports. The report’s author noted that overall slowing of the economy is much more than it had been last year prompting more cautiousness about R&D spending in the US. Since the late 1990s, R&D investment in the US has increased annually at rates of between 1 and 2%, after accounting for inflation. A year ago, Battelle estimated that spending would grow at 3% and maybe 4% annually, but is now predicted to grow 2% on the optimistic side, for each of the next 3 years.[/color][/font]